Yields

Each soil type has a corresponding base yield of production for each commodity from 1984 – which is the most recent comprehensive soil survey for the state of Ohio and separate from the base yield of non-land costs. Prior to 2006, Ohio Department of Taxation (ODT) did not adjust for yield trends and calculated gross operating income for each soil type via their 1984 yields which suppressed revenues – in the formula this would effectively mean that the \(\widehat{Yield_{c,Ohio,t}}\) equaled \(Yield_{c,Ohio,1984}\) instead of varying:

\[ Adjustment_{c,s,t} = \left( \frac{\widehat{Yield_{c,Ohio,t}}}{Yield_{c,Ohio,1984}} \times Yield_{c,s,1984} \right) \]

ODT began adjusting for yield trends through the current method of taking the 10-year averages of state-wide yields (irrespective of soil type), dividing by the state-wide yields for each commodity in 1984, then multiplying this value based on the 1984 commodity yield for the particular soil type evaluated. This can be thought of as an adjustment factor to account for the general trend of increasing yields in corn, wheat, and soybeans. Prior to 2014, the 10-year calculation involved a two year lag – i.e. the 2014 tax year used average yield values from 2003 through 2012. In 2015 and beyond, there is only a one year lag – i.e. 2015 tax year used average yield values from 2005 through 2014. For each crop in a given CAUV year, this can be mathematically described as:

\[ \widehat{Yield_{c,Ohio,t}} = \sum_{i = 0}^{9} \frac{Yield_{c, Ohio, t - i - lag}}{10} \]

The yields for corn, soybeans, and wheat come from official USDA data which are automatically downloaded with the 0-data/0-ohio-nass.R script. These data technically come from Crop Production Reports. Typically there is an August, September, October, and November forecast. Then finalized values occur in January of the following year. The USDA Quick Stats API will incorrectly place the most recent forecast value for the current year in the “YEAR” reference period. This needs to be accounted for.

Yields are one of the components which does not use Olympic averaging, which makes projecting the component forward more sensitive to new values.

Tax Year Yields
2005 1984
2006 1995-2004
2007 1996-2005
2008 1997-2006
2009 1998-2007
2010 1999-2008
2011 2000-2009
2012 2001-2010
2013 2002-2011
2014 2003-2012
2015 2005-2014
2016 2006-2015
2017 2007-2016
2018 2008-2017
2019 2009-2018
2020 2010-2019
Future previous-11 years ago
Years 10 Average, one year lag

Current Projections

The yields used in CAUV calculation are simple averages over the most recent 10 years of data. In projecting forward yield values in future years, the missing years of data are replaced with the 30-year trend-line yield for the crop in question. There is no corresponding “high” or “low” projection since this is not an Olympic averaged component.

Our current expectations for the yields of corn, soybeans, and wheat in the CAUV formula as of 2020-04-30.

Corn

Year ODT Yield USDA Yield Trend Yield Projected Yield
2006 132 159 146.5 132.1
2007 134 150 148.5 134.3
2008 139 131 150.5 139.1
2009 140.7 171 152.5 140.7
2010 140.1 160 154.4 139.7
2011 144.9 153 156.4 144.2
2012 146.5 120 158.4 145.5
2013 148.5 174 160.4 147
2014 151.9 176 162.3 150.1
2015 155.2 153 164.3 153.7
2016 156.2 159 166.3 154.7
2017 156.2 177 168.3 154.7
2018 158.9 187 170.2 157.4
2019 164.1 164 172.2 163
2020 - - 174.2 162.3
2021 - - 176.2 163.7
2022 - - 178.1 166

Soybeans

Year ODT Yield USDA Yield Trend Yield Projected Yield
2006 40 47 44.8 39.8
2007 40 47 45.4 40.5
2008 42 36 45.9 41.6
2009 42 49 46.4 42
2010 41.2 48 47 41.1
2011 42.5 48 47.5 42.5
2012 43.1 45 48.1 43
2013 43.7 49.5 48.6 43.8
2014 45 52.5 49.1 45
2015 46.7 50 49.7 46.7
2016 47.2 54.5 50.2 47.2
2017 47.9 49.5 50.8 48
2018 48.2 56 51.3 48.2
2019 50.4 49 51.8 50.2
2020 - - 52.4 50.2
2021 - - 52.9 50.6
2022 - - 53.5 51.1

Wheat

Year ODT Yield USDA Yield Trend Yield Projected Yield
2006 63 68 64.9 62.8
2007 64 61 65.4 63.8
2008 67 67 66 66.7
2009 66.7 71 66.6 66.5
2010 67.1 61 67.2 66.8
2011 67.3 57 67.8 66.9
2012 66.2 68 68.3 65.8
2013 65.3 70 68.9 64.8
2014 66 74 69.5 65.4
2015 67.1 67 70.1 66.8
2016 66.7 80 70.6 66.4
2017 67.9 74 71.2 67.6
2018 69.2 75 71.8 68.9
2019 69.9 56 72.4 69.7
2020 - - 73 68.2
2021 - - 73.5 69.4
2022 - - 74.1 71